“IF” Bets and Reverses

I mentioned last week, that when your book offers “if/reverses,” you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not understand how to bet an “if/reverse.” A complete explanation and comparison of “if” bets, “if/reverses,” and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..

An “if” bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of “if” bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true “if” bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the second team.

You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you intend to make an “if” bet. “If Helpful site can even be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the next game though it has already been played.

Although an “if” bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. As soon as you make an “if” bet, the next bet can’t be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the second game. Because of this, there’s less control over an “if” bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an “if” bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn’t an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.

You can make an “if” bet by saying to the bookmaker, “I wish to make an ‘if’ bet,” and, “Give me Team A IF Team B for $100.” Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.

If the initial team in the “if” bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the “if” bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you’ll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an “if” will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each and every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.

As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an “if” bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.

Bettors soon discovered that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two “if” bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on ” Team A if Team B,” you’ll bet just $55 on ” Team A if Team B.” and then create a second “if” bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an “if/reverse” or sometimes only a “reverse.”

A “reverse” is two separate “if” bets:

Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and

Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.

You don’t need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a “reverse,” the two teams, and the total amount.

If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single “if” bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial “if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the second “if” bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both “if” bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.

If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played a single “if” bet for $100. Team A’s loss would cost you $55 in the first “if” combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B’s loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You’ll lose $55 on each of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.

The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first “if” bet and $5 on the second “if” bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the “reverse.” When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..

We’ve accomplished this smaller loss of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 “if” bet and the two reversed “if” bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the “reverse” doesn’t actually save us any money, but it has the advantage of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the “if” bet.

(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I’ll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)

As with parlays, the overall rule regarding “if” bets is:

DON’T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making “if” bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.

For the winning bettor, the “if” bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn’t belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn’t be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the “if” bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the “if” bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.

The $10 savings for the “if” bettor results from the point that he could be not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the “if” bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.

In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. “If” bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.

The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason “if” bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that the next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since “if/reverses” work out exactly the same as “if” bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.

Exceptions to the Rule – When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and “IF’s”

As with all rules, there are exceptions. “If” bets and parlays should be made by successful with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::

When there is no other choice and he must bet either an “if/reverse,” a parlay, or a teaser; or

When betting co-dependent propositions.

The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you’re the best man at your friend’s wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one’s tux which means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride’s maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.

Because the old philosopher used to say, “Is that what’s troubling you, bucky?” If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 “if” bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the “if/reverse” is an effective replacement for the parlay for anyone who is winner.

For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as “if” bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.

It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We’d simply lose the vig no matter how often the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we’ve seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the “reverse” when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.

Choosing Between “IF” Bets and Parlays

Based on a $110 parlay, which we’ll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 “reverse” bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).

Whenever a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the “reverse” includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.

With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have previously seen, when you have a positive expectation the “if/reverse” is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are one to the other, but the proven fact that they’re co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.

The point where the “if/reverse” becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that whenever, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. That a BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period is not an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.

In comparison with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two “if/reverse” bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting “if/reverses” may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.

Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use “if/reverses.”